Epidemiological modeling of invasion in heterogeneous landscapes: spread of sudden oak death in California (1990-2030)

• Published in: Ecosphere (Washington, D.C) Vol. 2; no. 2; pp. art17 - 24
• Main Authors: Meentemeyer, Ross K, Cunniffe, Nik J, Cook, Alex R, Filipe, Joao A. N, Hunter, Richard D, Rizzo, David M, Gilligan, Christopher A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington Ecological Society of America 01.02.2011; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Biodiversity; computational biology; Disease; Disease spread; Dispersal; Ecosystems; emerging infectious disease; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; Epidemics; Epidemiology; GIS; Heterogeneity; Hypotheses; Infections; Infectious diseases; Landscape; landscape epidemiology; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Markov chains; Pathogens; Phytophthora ramorum; Scale models; spatial heterogeneity; species distribution model; Weather; California

The spread of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in natural environments poses substantial risks to biodiversity and ecosystem function. As EIDs and their impacts grow, landscape- to regional-scale models of disease dynamics are increasingly needed for quantitative prediction of epidemic outcomes a...