Near-Field ETAS Constraints and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment

• Published in: Pure and applied geophysics Vol. 172; no. 8; pp. 2277 - 2293
• Main Authors: Yoder, Mark R., Rundle, John B., Glasscoe, Margaret T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel Springer Basel 01.08.2015; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquakes; Emergency preparedness; Estimates; Geophysics/Geodesy; Hazard assessment; Instrumentation; Mathematical models; Plate tectonics; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismicity; Seismology; Statistical models; Rupture Area; Seismic Hazard Assessment; Seismic Hazard; Large Aftershock; Aftershock Sequence
• ISSN: 0033-4553; 1420-9136
• DOI: 10.1007/s00024-014-0785-z

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistical model of aftershock seismicity combines various earthquake scaling relations to produce synthetic earthquake catalogs, or estimates of aftershock seismicity rates, based on recent earthquake activity. One challenge to ETAS-based hazard assessment is the large number of free parameters involved. In this paper, we introduce an approach to constrain this parameter space from canonical scaling relations, empirical observations, and fundamental physics. We show that ETAS parameters can be estimated as a function of an earthquake’s magnitude m based on the finite temporal and spatial extents of the rupture area. This approach facilitates fast ETAS-based estimates of seismicity from large “seed” catalogs, and it is particularly well suited to web-based deployment and otherwise automated implementations. It constitutes a significant improvement over contemporary ETAS by mitigating variability related to instrumentation and subjective catalog selection.