The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People

• Main Authors: Wester, Philippus, Mishra, Arabinda, Mukherji, Aditi, Shrestha, Arun Bhakta
• Format: eBook
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer Nature 2019; Springer International Publishing AG; Springer
• Edition: 1
• Subjects: Climate change; Climatic changes; Conservation biology; Conservation of the environment; Earth sciences; Earth Sciences, Geography, Environment, Planning; Ecology; Environmental geography; Environmental policy and protocols; Geography; Mountain ecology; Nature; Nonfiction; Physical geography; Physical geography and topography; Pollution and threats to the environment; Science; Sustainability; Sustainable development; The environment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to saf...

Table of Contents:

• Intro -- Foreword -- Contents -- 1 Introduction to the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment -- 1.1 Global Mountain Perspective -- 1.2 The Hindu Kush Himalaya-A Global Asset -- 1.3 Key Issues of the HKH -- 1.4 Overall Objective, Rationale and Key Questions -- 1.4.1 Overall Objective -- 1.4.2 Rationale for the Assessment -- 1.4.3 Key Questions -- 1.5 Vision -- 1.6 HKH Priorities Contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals -- 1.7 Conceptual Framing of the Assessment -- 1.8 Assessment Process -- 1.9 Outline of the Assessment -- References -- 2 Drivers of Change to Mountain Sustainability in the Hindu Kush Himalaya -- 2.1 Pillars and Drivers of Sustainability in HKH Mountains -- 2.2 Environmental Drivers of Change to Mountain Sustainability -- 2.2.1 Land Use and Land Cover Change -- 2.2.2 Over-Exploitation of Natural Resources -- 2.2.2.1 Extraction of Non-timber Forest Products (NTFPs) -- 2.2.2.2 Unsustainable Grazing -- 2.2.2.3 Illegal Hunting -- 2.2.2.4 Tourism -- 2.2.2.5 Mining -- 2.2.3 Pollution -- 2.2.3.1 Water Pollution: Organic and Inorganic -- 2.2.3.2 Solid Waste and Soil Pollution -- 2.2.3.3 Sources of Pollution -- 2.2.4 Invasive Alien Species (IAS) -- 2.2.4.1 Status of IAS Studies in HKH -- 2.2.4.2 Pathways of Introduction -- 2.2.4.3 Major Effects at Ecosystem Level -- 2.2.5 Mountain Hazards -- 2.2.5.1 Types of Mountain Hazards: Earthquakes, Landslides, and Erosion -- 2.2.5.2 Effects of Mountain Hazards: Casualties, Financial Loss, Farmland Loss, Damaged Roads -- 2.2.5.3 Impact of Mountain Hazards Amplified by Climate Change -- 2.2.6 Climate Change and Variability -- 2.2.6.1 Environmental Effects -- 2.2.6.2 Socioeconomic Effects -- 2.3 Sociocultural Drivers of Change to Mountain Sustainability -- 2.3.1 Changing Demographic Situation -- 2.3.2 Changing Sociocultural Situation -- 2.3.3 Governance Systems and Institutions
• 2.3.4 External Knowledge and Technological Innovations -- 2.3.4.1 Information and Communications Technology (ICT) -- 2.3.4.2 Geospatial Technology and Improved Regional Perspectives -- 2.3.4.3 Biotechnological Applications in Agricultural Production Systems -- 2.4 Economic Drivers of Change to Mountain Sustainability -- 2.4.1 Economic Growth and Differentiation -- 2.4.2 Rapid Infrastructure Development -- 2.4.3 Urban and Peri-urban Expansion -- 2.4.3.1 National and Regional Capitals -- 2.4.3.2 New Hotspots of Territorialization -- 2.4.3.3 Old Urbanization with Own Production Systems -- 2.4.3.4 Resort Towns for Tourism and Second Homes -- 2.4.3.5 Local Centres -- 2.5 Conclusions -- References -- 3 Unravelling Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Rapid Warming in the Mountains and Increasing Extremes -- 3.1 Our Understanding of the HKH Climate Needs to Be Improved -- 3.2 Weather and Climate Mean Conditions in the HKH -- 3.2.1 Major Features of Climatology: Topographic Control, Seasons, and Liquid and Solid Precipitation -- 3.2.2 Climate Dominated by Monsoon -- 3.2.3 Climate Influenced by Large-Scale Climate Elements -- 3.3 Past HKH Climate Changes Were at Decadal to Greater Than Multi-millennial Time Scales -- 3.3.1 Significant Warming Characterized HKH Surface Air Temperature Trends in Past Decades -- 3.3.2 Precipitation Did Not Show Clear Trends in the Past Decades -- 3.3.3 Decreasing Near-Surface Wind Speed, Solar Radiation, and Sunshine Duration Indicated by Scanty Data -- 3.3.4 Significant Changes in the Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Past Decades -- 3.3.5 Progressively Greater Warming with Elevation -- 3.4 Climate Models Project Increases in HKH Temperature and Precipitation in the 21st Century -- 3.4.1 Significant Warming Projected, Greater Than Global Average
• 3.4.2 Precipitation Projected to Increase, but with Regional Diversity -- 3.5 Limitations and Gaps in the Analysis -- Annex 1: Data and Methods for Analysis of Past Temperature -- Annex 2: Data and Methods for Analysis of Past Precipitation -- Annex 3: Analysis of CMIP5 Data -- Annex 4: Analysis of CORDEX Data -- References -- 4 Exploring Futures of the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Scenarios and Pathways -- 4.1 HKH Scenarios for 2080 -- 4.1.1 Global Scenarios and Regional Outlooks -- 4.1.2 Challenges and Opportunities for the HKH -- 4.1.3 Storyline for HKH Scenario: "Downhill" -- 4.1.4 Storyline for HKH Scenario: "Business as Usual" -- 4.1.5 Storyline for HKH Scenario: "Prosperous HKH" -- 4.2 HKH Baseline in 2015 -- 4.2.1 National Considerations -- 4.3 Tracking Trends and Commitments for 2030: SDG's and NDC's in the HKH -- 4.3.1 Existing Sectoral Commitments Toward 2030 Sectoral/Thematic Considerations -- 4.4 Two Paths Toward a Prosperous HKH -- 4.4.1 Major Emerging Opportunities in the HKH -- 4.4.2 Two Pathways and Distinguishing Actions -- 4.4.3 Two Pathways but Common Actions -- 4.4.4 Actions to Avoid Downhill and Business as Usual (BAU) Scenarios -- 4.5 Beyond 2050 to 2080: Knowledge Gaps and Ways Forward -- References -- 5 Sustaining Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in the Hindu Kush Himalaya -- 5.1 Mountain Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: A Major Global Asset Under Threat -- 5.2 The Rich Biodiversity of the HKH Region -- 5.2.1 Ecosystem Diversity -- 5.2.2 Species Diversity -- 5.2.3 Genetic Diversity -- 5.2.4 Functional Diversity -- 5.3 Ecosystem Services-The Source of Human Wellbeing -- 5.3.1 Social Value of Ecosystem Services -- 5.3.2 Cultural Value of Ecosystem Services -- 5.3.3 Ecological Value of Ecosystem Services -- 5.3.4 Economic Value of Ecosystem Services -- 5.3.5 Changing Ecosystem Services of the HKH Region
• 5.3.6 Trade-offs and Synergies-Implications for Development -- 5.4 Conservation and Management Practices -- 5.4.1 Flagship and Keystone Species Conservation -- 5.4.2 Protected Areas Management -- 5.4.3 Conservation Through Traditional Knowledge -- 5.4.4 The Landscape Approach-Recognizing Complexity and Understanding Linkages -- 5.4.5 Participatory Forest Resources Management Practices -- 5.4.6 National and International Policies and Legislations-Support for Biodiversity Conservation -- 5.5 Sustaining Ecosystems-Challenges, Opportunities, and Strategies -- 5.5.1 An Integrated Approach-The Landscape as a Socio-Ecological System -- 5.5.2 Building Knowledge-Science in Support of Decision-Making -- 5.5.3 Regional Cooperation for Regional Challenges and Opportunities -- 5.5.4 National and Global Investment-Securing Future of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services -- 5.6 Conclusion -- References -- 6 Meeting Future Energy Needs in the Hindu Kush Himalaya -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.1.1 Setting the Scene: The Transition Challenge -- 6.1.2 Transformation in Energy Systems: Multidimensional Linkages -- 6.1.3 Framework and Roadmap -- 6.2 Energy Demand and Supply-Trends and Patterns -- 6.2.1 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Shaping Energy Demand -- 6.2.2 Energy Demand and Consumption Characteristics -- 6.2.3 Ensuring Sustainable Energy Supply -- 6.3 National Energy Policies, Programmes, Institutions, and Markets -- 6.3.1 Energy in Relation to National Development Strategies -- 6.3.2 National Energy Policy Framework, Programmes, and Markets -- 6.3.3 Cross-Regional Experiences and Recommendations -- 6.4 Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Energy -- 6.4.1 Key Sustainable Energy Concerns in the HKH -- 6.4.2 Links Between Energy and the SDGs: Synergies and Trade-offs -- 6.4.3 Assessing the Vulnerability of Vital Energy Services and Systems
• 6.4.4 Overcoming Barriers and Seizing Potential Opportunities -- 6.5 Future Energy Scenarios and Pathways -- 6.5.1 Future Energy Scenarios of HKH Countries -- 6.5.2 Pathways Towards Rural Electrification -- 6.5.3 Pathways Towards Sustainable Clean Cooking Energy -- 6.5.4 A Sustainable Energy Future: Barriers and Opportunities -- 6.6 Energy Cooperation in HKH: National, Regional, and Global Linkages -- 6.6.1 Energy Challenges and Regional Cooperation -- 6.6.2 Models for Energy Cooperation -- 6.6.3 Role of Multi-level Governance in Securing Sustainable Energy in HKH -- 6.6.4 Climate Change, Energy Resilience, and Regional Energy Cooperation -- 6.7 Way Forward -- References -- 7 Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region -- 7.1 Situating the Cryosphere in the Hindu Kush Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau-Pamir Region -- 7.1.1 Defining the Extended HKH Region from a Cryosphere Perspective -- 7.1.2 Regional Climate -- 7.2 Snow -- 7.2.1 Monitoring of Snow -- 7.2.1.1 Field Measurement -- 7.2.1.2 Remote Sensing Measurement -- 7.2.1.3 Regional Differences in Snow Cover -- 7.2.2 Observed Changes -- 7.2.2.1 Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Karakoram -- 7.2.2.2 Pamir -- 7.2.2.3 Tibetan Plateau -- 7.2.3 Projected Changes -- 7.2.4 Recommendations -- 7.3 Glaciers -- 7.3.1 Measuring Glacier Change -- 7.3.1.1 Glacier Area -- 7.3.1.2 Glacier Volume -- 7.3.1.3 In Situ Mass Balance Measurements and Reference Glaciers -- 7.3.2 Observed Changes -- 7.3.2.1 Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Karakoram -- 7.3.2.2 Pamir -- 7.3.2.3 Tibetan Plateau -- 7.3.3 Glacier Projections -- 7.3.3.1 Near-Term Glacier Change (2030) -- 7.3.3.2 Medium-Term Glacier Change (2050) -- 7.3.3.3 Long-Term Glacier Change (2080 and 2100) -- 7.3.4 Recommendations -- 7.4 Glacial Lakes -- 7.4.1 Occurrence -- 7.4.2 Observed Change -- 7.4.3 Projections -- 7.4.4 Recommendations -- 7.5 Permafrost
• 7.5.1 Occurrence