Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 19; no. 8; pp. 671 - 692
• Main Author: COLLINS, M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Springer 01.10.2002; Berlin Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Air temperature; Brackish; Climate change; Climate variability; Earth, ocean, space; El Nino; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Freshwater; General circulation models; Marine; Meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere interaction; Southern Oscillation; Surface temperature; Tropical environments; Weather analysis and prediction; Chaos; Initial condition; General circulation models; Initial value problem; Surface temperature; Forecasting; North Atlantic oscillation; El Niño; Atmospheric temperature; Seasonal anomaly; Predictability; Seasonal variation; Southern oscillation; Decadal variation; Numerical simulation; Trajectory; Growth of error; Ocean atmosphere interaction

Any initial value forecast of climate will be subject to errors originating from poorly known initial conditions, model imperfections, and by "chaos" in the sense that, even if the initial conditions were perfectly known, infinitesimal errors can amplify and spoil the forecast at some lead...