Safety Monitoring of High Arch Dams in Initial Operation Period Using Vector Error Correction Model
Conventional statistical models for dam safety monitoring often require long-term, continuous and stationary monitoring time series, which are difficult to fulfill in the initial operation period of the dams. In this study, special attention was given to the nonstationarity and lack of monitoring ti...
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| Published in | Rock mechanics and rock engineering Vol. 51; no. 8; pp. 2469 - 2481 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Vienna
Springer Vienna
01.08.2018
Springer Nature B.V |
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| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Conventional statistical models for dam safety monitoring often require long-term, continuous and stationary monitoring time series, which are difficult to fulfill in the initial operation period of the dams. In this study, special attention was given to the nonstationarity and lack of monitoring time series, and a vector error correction model was proposed for the safety monitoring of arch dams in their initial operation period. Principal component analysis was used in the data preprocessing stage to extract uncorrelated representative temperature trends of the dam body from hundreds of multisensor temperature records to reduce variable dimensions. Then, the vector error correction model was proposed, to take into account the cointegration between the structural responses and the environmental variables. The model was further extended in order to take into account the autocorrelation and cross-correlation among multiple structural responses. The established model performed better in terms of fitting and prediction accuracy compared with existing models and provided better forecast even when limited observations were available. The proposed method was successfully implemented to analyze the deformation of the Xiluodu arch dam in southwest China. |
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| AbstractList | Conventional statistical models for dam safety monitoring often require long-term, continuous and stationary monitoring time series, which are difficult to fulfill in the initial operation period of the dams. In this study, special attention was given to the nonstationarity and lack of monitoring time series, and a vector error correction model was proposed for the safety monitoring of arch dams in their initial operation period. Principal component analysis was used in the data preprocessing stage to extract uncorrelated representative temperature trends of the dam body from hundreds of multisensor temperature records to reduce variable dimensions. Then, the vector error correction model was proposed, to take into account the cointegration between the structural responses and the environmental variables. The model was further extended in order to take into account the autocorrelation and cross-correlation among multiple structural responses. The established model performed better in terms of fitting and prediction accuracy compared with existing models and provided better forecast even when limited observations were available. The proposed method was successfully implemented to analyze the deformation of the Xiluodu arch dam in southwest China. |
| Author | Li, Qingbin Liang, Guohe Hu, Yu |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Guohe surname: Liang fullname: Liang, Guohe organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University – sequence: 2 givenname: Yu surname: Hu fullname: Hu, Yu organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University – sequence: 3 givenname: Qingbin surname: Li fullname: Li, Qingbin email: qingbinli@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ymssp_2019_106386 crossref_primary_10_1002_stc_2638 crossref_primary_10_1061__ASCE_ST_1943_541X_0002467 crossref_primary_10_1177_14759217231203243 crossref_primary_10_32604_cmc_2020_012537 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_engappai_2023_106813 crossref_primary_10_3390_w12030791 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13349_022_00640_x crossref_primary_10_1155_2019_7620948 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_engstruct_2022_115353 crossref_primary_10_1155_2021_8487997 crossref_primary_10_1108_EC_06_2019_0288 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_energy_2021_120962 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jobe_2023_108106 crossref_primary_10_1177_14759217241271055 crossref_primary_10_1515_comp_2022_0280 crossref_primary_10_2113_2022_4317011 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2020_10_028 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_enggeo_2023_107201 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1007/978-3-540-32827-8 10.1016/j.strusafe.2015.07.002 10.1016/j.aei.2011.01.001 10.1007/s11431-010-0060-1 10.1007/s11831-015-9157-9 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2007)133:3(267) 10.1007/s00603-013-0507-3 10.1002/stc.1575 10.1007/s13349-014-0079-2 10.1080/15732479.2014.983528 10.1007/s00603-013-0483-7 10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.02.005 10.1093/biomet/71.3.599 10.1007/s00603-014-0686-6 10.1002/stc.1997 10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7 10.1016/j.strusafe.2015.05.001 10.1061/(ASCE)AS.1943-5525.0000573 10.1016/j.enggeo.2010.09.004 10.1061/(asce)cp.1943-5487.0000289 10.1016/S1003-6326(13)62717-X 10.2307/1913236 10.1016/j.aei.2007.02.002 10.1016/j.ymssp.2009.02.013 10.1080/17499518.2015.1102293 10.1016/j.engstruct.2006.04.022 |
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| Keywords | Safety monitoring of dams Cointegration analysis Hydrostatic-seasonal-time model Vector error correction model |
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In: 23th ICOLD congress, pp. q91–R43 LombardiGAmbergFDarbreGAlgorithm for the prediction of functional delays in the behaviour of concrete damsInt J Hydropower Dams200815111 SalazarFToledoMOñateEMoránRAn empirical comparison of machine learning techniques for dam behaviour modellingStruct Saf20155691710.1016/j.strusafe.2015.05.001 KangFLiuJLiJLiSConcrete dam deformation prediction model for health monitoring based on extreme learning machineStruct Control Health Monit2017 MataJTavares de CastroASá da CostaJConstructing statistical models for arch dam deformationStruct Control Health Monit20142142343710.1002/stc.1575 PosenatoDLanataFInaudiDSmithIFCModel-free data interpretation for continuous monitoring of complex structuresAdv Eng Inform20082213514410.1016/j.aei.2007.02.002 Palumbo P, Piroddi L, Lancini S, Lozza F (2001) NARX modelling of radial crest displacements of the Schlegeis Arch Dam. 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| References_xml | – reference: De SortisAPaolianiPStatistical analysis and structural identification in concrete dam monitoringEng Struct20072911012010.1016/j.engstruct.2006.04.022 – reference: BarlaGAntoliniFBarlaMMensiEPiovanoGMonitoring of the Beauregard landslide (Aosta Valley, Italy) using advanced and conventional techniquesEng Geol201011621823510.1016/j.enggeo.2010.09.004 – reference: ZhongDYanFLiMHuangCFanKTangJA real-time analysis and feedback system for quality control of dam foundation grouting engineeringRock Mech Rock Eng2015481947196810.1007/s00603-014-0686-6 – reference: BukenyaPMoyoPBeushausenHOosthuizenCHealth monitoring of concrete dams: a literature reviewJ Civ Struct Health Monit2014423524410.1007/s13349-014-0079-2 – reference: SalazarFMoránRToledoMÁOñateEData-based models for the prediction of dam behaviour: a review and some methodological considerationsArch Comput Methods Eng20152412110.1007/s11831-015-9157-9 – reference: Song Z (2007) Research on methods for dam safety monitoring based on intelligence computationdoctoral dissertation, Dalian University of Technology – reference: Swiss Committee on Dams (2003) Methods of analysis for the prediction and the verification of dam behaviour. Wasser Energie Luft, 95. Jahrgang, Heft 3/4, CH-5401 Baden – reference: Rocha M (1958) A quantitative method for the interpretation of the results of the observation of dams. In: Proceedings of VI congress on large dams, New York, NY, USA – reference: LaoryITrinhTNSmithIFCEvaluating two model-free data interpretation methods for measurements that are influenced by temperatureAdv Eng Inform20112549550610.1016/j.aei.2011.01.001 – reference: SuHWenZSunXYangMTime-varying identification model for dam behavior considering structural reinforcementStruct Saf2015571710.1016/j.strusafe.2015.07.002 – reference: YuHWuZBaoTZhangLMultivariate analysis in dam monitoring data with PCASci China Technol Sci2010531088109710.1007/s11431-010-0060-1 – reference: LiFWangZLiuGFuCWangJHydrostatic seasonal state model for monitoring data analysis of concrete damsStruct Infrastruct Eng2015111616163110.1080/15732479.2014.983528 – reference: LombardiGAmbergFDarbreGAlgorithm for the prediction of functional delays in the behaviour of concrete damsInt J Hydropower Dams200815111 – reference: PosenatoDLanataFInaudiDSmithIFCModel-free data interpretation for continuous monitoring of complex structuresAdv Eng Inform20082213514410.1016/j.aei.2007.02.002 – reference: GrangerCWNewboldPSpurious regressions in econometricsJ Econom1974211112010.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7 – reference: LiuZShaoJXuWXuFComprehensive stability evaluation of rock slope using the cloud model-based approachRock Mech Rock Eng2014472239225210.1007/s00603-013-0507-3 – reference: PopescuTDA new approach for dam monitoring and surveillance using blind source separationInt J Innov Comput Inf Control (IJICIC)2011738113824 – reference: BarlaGParonuzziPThe 1963 Vajont landslide: 50th anniversaryRock Mech Rock Eng201346126710.1007/s00603-013-0483-7 – reference: KangFLiuJLiJLiSConcrete dam deformation prediction model for health monitoring based on extreme learning machineStruct Control Health Monit2017 – reference: MataJTavares de CastroASá da CostaJConstructing statistical models for arch dam deformationStruct Control Health Monit20142142343710.1002/stc.1575 – reference: DaiW-JBinLDingX-LHuangD-WModeling dam deformation using independent component regression methodTrans Nonferr Met Soc China2013232194220010.1016/S1003-6326(13)62717-X – reference: Palumbo P, Piroddi L, Lancini S, Lozza F (2001) NARX modelling of radial crest displacements of the Schlegeis Arch Dam. 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| SubjectTerms | Arch dams Autocorrelation Body temperature Civil Engineering Cointegration analysis Dam safety Dams Data processing Deformation Dimensions Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Economic models Error correction Error correction & detection Geophysics/Geodesy Mathematical models Model accuracy Monitoring Original Paper Principal components analysis Safety Statistical analysis Statistical models Temperature Time series |
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| Title | Safety Monitoring of High Arch Dams in Initial Operation Period Using Vector Error Correction Model |
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