Historical drivers and future streamflow variations of the Kura River in the Western Transcaucasia region of Georgia: Analysis of tree-ring chronologies from 1720 to 2021 CE
In this paper, we conduct a dendrochronological study in the Western Transcaucasia region of Georgia to elucidate the relationship between tree growth and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) in order to reconstruct the paleohydrology of the Kura River and to assess the im...
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| Published in | Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology Vol. 655; p. 112529 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.12.2024
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | In this paper, we conduct a dendrochronological study in the Western Transcaucasia region of Georgia to elucidate the relationship between tree growth and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) in order to reconstruct the paleohydrology of the Kura River and to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. We analyzed tree-ring chronologies from 1720 to 2021 CE, and analysis of July–August streamflow revealed five wet phases (1739–1753, 1764–1807, 1811–1831, 1962–1988 and 2000–2019 CE ranging in duration from 11 to 49 years) when streamflow exceeded the long-term mean, and four dry phases (1720–1738, 1832–1881, 1936–1961 and 1989–1999 CE) when streamflow was below average. The most extreme wet and dry years were 1771 and 1851 CE, respectively. Spatial correlation patterns of Kura River reconstructed runoff against sea level pressure (SLP) are negative in the Arctic and positive in mid- to high-latitude Eurasia. The Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and solar activity are important drivers of hydroclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean region, by modifying the location of high-pressure areas and large-scale atmospheric circulations. Comparison of our Kura streamflow reconstructions and data in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) reveals a moderately positive correlation (0.40) throughout the study period, being strongest over the Southern Caucasus and Eastern Turkey. This validates the drought signals and emphasizes the importance of using multi-proxy approaches, supported by spatially resolved data, to enhance understanding of regional hydroclimatic variability and drought patterns. We additionally conducted future streamflow scenarios, most notably under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, in line with global trends in CMIP6 projections. Our streamflow results indicate a trend towards increasing drought severity, which highlights the need for urgent adaptation and mitigation strategies in water resource management in this region. Ultimately, this study provides valuable information on historical hydroclimatic conditions in the Kura River Basin, which help to develop strategies to mitigate the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Western Transcaucasia Caucasus region. We further highlight the importance of regional and global teleconnections for understanding regional hydrological dynamics.
•The study reconstructed Kura River's streamflow (1720–2021) and identifying 24 dry and 17 wet years linked to climate variations.•Synoptic climatology analyses have revealed that shifts in the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity significantly affect Mediterranean hydroclimatic conditions and large-scale atmospheric circulations, thereby influencing streamflow and regional climate variability.•Projected CMIP 6 runoff decreases: 14.91 % by century's end under moderate emissions, and 35.68 % by 2100 under high emissions, signaling severe future drought risks. |
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| AbstractList | In this paper, we conduct a dendrochronological study in the Western Transcaucasia region of Georgia to elucidate the relationship between tree growth and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) in order to reconstruct the paleohydrology of the Kura River and to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. We analyzed tree-ring chronologies from 1720 to 2021 CE, and analysis of July–August streamflow revealed five wet phases (1739–1753, 1764–1807, 1811–1831, 1962–1988 and 2000–2019 CE ranging in duration from 11 to 49 years) when streamflow exceeded the long-term mean, and four dry phases (1720–1738, 1832–1881, 1936–1961 and 1989–1999 CE) when streamflow was below average. The most extreme wet and dry years were 1771 and 1851 CE, respectively. Spatial correlation patterns of Kura River reconstructed runoff against sea level pressure (SLP) are negative in the Arctic and positive in mid- to high-latitude Eurasia. The Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and solar activity are important drivers of hydroclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean region, by modifying the location of high-pressure areas and large-scale atmospheric circulations. Comparison of our Kura streamflow reconstructions and data in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) reveals a moderately positive correlation (0.40) throughout the study period, being strongest over the Southern Caucasus and Eastern Turkey. This validates the drought signals and emphasizes the importance of using multi-proxy approaches, supported by spatially resolved data, to enhance understanding of regional hydroclimatic variability and drought patterns. We additionally conducted future streamflow scenarios, most notably under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, in line with global trends in CMIP6 projections. Our streamflow results indicate a trend towards increasing drought severity, which highlights the need for urgent adaptation and mitigation strategies in water resource management in this region. Ultimately, this study provides valuable information on historical hydroclimatic conditions in the Kura River Basin, which help to develop strategies to mitigate the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Western Transcaucasia Caucasus region. We further highlight the importance of regional and global teleconnections for understanding regional hydrological dynamics.
•The study reconstructed Kura River's streamflow (1720–2021) and identifying 24 dry and 17 wet years linked to climate variations.•Synoptic climatology analyses have revealed that shifts in the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity significantly affect Mediterranean hydroclimatic conditions and large-scale atmospheric circulations, thereby influencing streamflow and regional climate variability.•Projected CMIP 6 runoff decreases: 14.91 % by century's end under moderate emissions, and 35.68 % by 2100 under high emissions, signaling severe future drought risks. In this paper, we conduct a dendrochronological study in the Western Transcaucasia region of Georgia to elucidate the relationship between tree growth and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) in order to reconstruct the paleohydrology of the Kura River and to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. We analyzed tree-ring chronologies from 1720 to 2021 CE, and analysis of July–August streamflow revealed five wet phases (1739–1753, 1764–1807, 1811–1831, 1962–1988 and 2000–2019 CE ranging in duration from 11 to 49 years) when streamflow exceeded the long-term mean, and four dry phases (1720–1738, 1832–1881, 1936–1961 and 1989–1999 CE) when streamflow was below average. The most extreme wet and dry years were 1771 and 1851 CE, respectively. Spatial correlation patterns of Kura River reconstructed runoff against sea level pressure (SLP) are negative in the Arctic and positive in mid- to high-latitude Eurasia. The Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and solar activity are important drivers of hydroclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean region, by modifying the location of high-pressure areas and large-scale atmospheric circulations. Comparison of our Kura streamflow reconstructions and data in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) reveals a moderately positive correlation (0.40) throughout the study period, being strongest over the Southern Caucasus and Eastern Turkey. This validates the drought signals and emphasizes the importance of using multi-proxy approaches, supported by spatially resolved data, to enhance understanding of regional hydroclimatic variability and drought patterns. We additionally conducted future streamflow scenarios, most notably under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, in line with global trends in CMIP6 projections. Our streamflow results indicate a trend towards increasing drought severity, which highlights the need for urgent adaptation and mitigation strategies in water resource management in this region. Ultimately, this study provides valuable information on historical hydroclimatic conditions in the Kura River Basin, which help to develop strategies to mitigate the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Western Transcaucasia Caucasus region. We further highlight the importance of regional and global teleconnections for understanding regional hydrological dynamics. |
| ArticleNumber | 112529 |
| Author | Norman, Charles Köse, Nesibe Kavtaradze, Giorgi Rahmonov, Oimahmad Gurskaya, Marina Akkemik, Unal Chen, Youping Wang, Shijie Bakhtiyorov, Zulfiyor Zhang, Heli Yue, Weipeng Agafonov, Leonid Chen, Feng Hu, Mao Habibulloev, Sharifjon Roibu, Cătălin-Constantin |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Zulfiyor surname: Bakhtiyorov fullname: Bakhtiyorov, Zulfiyor organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Feng surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Feng email: feng653@163.com organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Youping surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Youping organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Shijie surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Shijie organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 5 givenname: Heli surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Heli organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 6 givenname: Mao surname: Hu fullname: Hu, Mao organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 7 givenname: Weipeng surname: Yue fullname: Yue, Weipeng organization: Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China – sequence: 8 givenname: Sharifjon surname: Habibulloev fullname: Habibulloev, Sharifjon organization: Khujand Science Center, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Khujand 735714, Tajikistan – sequence: 9 givenname: Giorgi surname: Kavtaradze fullname: Kavtaradze, Giorgi organization: Vasil Gulisashvili Forest Institute, Agricultural University of Georgia, Tbilisi 0159, Georgia – sequence: 10 givenname: Marina surname: Gurskaya fullname: Gurskaya, Marina organization: Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia – sequence: 11 givenname: Leonid surname: Agafonov fullname: Agafonov, Leonid organization: Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620144, Russia – sequence: 12 givenname: Oimahmad surname: Rahmonov fullname: Rahmonov, Oimahmad organization: Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Sosnowiec 41-200, Poland – sequence: 13 givenname: Cătălin-Constantin surname: Roibu fullname: Roibu, Cătălin-Constantin organization: Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, "Ștefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Universității Street, No. 13, 720229 Suceava, Romania – sequence: 14 givenname: Unal surname: Akkemik fullname: Akkemik, Unal organization: Department of Forest Botany, Faculty of Forestry, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Bahceköy-Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey – sequence: 15 givenname: Nesibe surname: Köse fullname: Köse, Nesibe organization: Department of Forest Botany, Faculty of Forestry, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Bahceköy-Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey – sequence: 16 givenname: Charles surname: Norman fullname: Norman, Charles organization: Tree Ring Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, United Kingdom |
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| Keywords | Kura River Arctic Oscillation (AO) Streamflow reconstruction Transcaucasia Region Future prediction |
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| SubjectTerms | Arctic Oscillation (AO) Arctic region Caucasus region climate change dendrochronology drought Eurasia Future prediction Georgia growth rings Kura River latitude Mediterranean region palaeogeography paleoclimatology paleoecology rivers runoff sea level stream flow Streamflow reconstruction temperature Transcaucasia Region tree growth Turkey (country) water management watersheds |
| Title | Historical drivers and future streamflow variations of the Kura River in the Western Transcaucasia region of Georgia: Analysis of tree-ring chronologies from 1720 to 2021 CE |
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