Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Indian Ocean

• Main Authors: Mohapatra, M, Bandyopadhyay, B. K, Rathore, L. S
• Format: eBook
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing AG 2016; Springer International Publishing; Springer
• Edition: 1
• Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change; Climatic changes; Cyclones; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Meteorology

This book deals primarily with understanding, monitoring and prediction of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). There is special emphasis on TC genesis, intensification, movement and associated adverse weather like heavy rainfall and gale winds. It highlights the current state...

Table of Contents:

• Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- About the Editors -- Part I: Tropical Cyclone Impact and Early Warning System -- Collaborative Mechanism for Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Prediction over North Indian Ocean -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Current Status of TC Forecasting in India -- 2.1 Early Warning System in TC Forecasting -- 2.2 TC Analytical Procedure -- 2.3 TC Forecasting -- 2.3.1 Adverse Weather Forecasting -- 2.4 TC Forecast Accuracy -- 3 International and National Collaborations in Early Warning Mechanism -- 3.1 Observational System -- 3.2 Data Exchange and Automation -- 3.3 NWP Guidance -- 3.4 Warning Dissemination -- 3.5 Research and Development -- 3.5.1 Forecast Demonstration Project -- 3.6 Capacity Building -- 4 Conclusions and Future Scope -- References -- Hydro-Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Phailin in Bay of Bengal in 2013 and the Assessment of Rice Inundation due to Flooding -- 1 Introduction -- 2 TC Phailin Track -- 3 Rainfall due to TC, Phailin -- 3.1 Rainfall Monitoring Process of IMD -- 3.2 Rainfall Estimates Based on Point Raingauge Stations -- 3.3 QPE Based on Merged Data Set of Raingauge and Satellite -- 3.4 Radar Based QPE -- 4 Synoptic Environment Related to Rainfall due to Phailin -- 5 HWRF Model Performance -- 6 Assessment of Rice Inundation Area -- 7 Conclusions -- References -- Spatial Verification of Rainfall Forecasts During Tropical Cyclone `Phailin´ -- 1 Introduction -- 2 NWP Models at NCMRWF -- 3 Data and Methodology -- 4 Observed and Forecast Track -- 5 Results and Discussion -- 5.1 Wind and Rainfall After the Landfall of TC -- 5.2 Verification of Rainfall Forecasts During 14 and 15 October Using CRA Method -- 5.3 Verification of QPF Statistics -- 6 Summary -- References -- Diagnostics of Upper Level Dynamics and Rainfall Asymmetry of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm MADI (2013) -- 1 Introduction
• 3.2 Identification of Predictors (Parameters) for PCR Model -- 4 Development of PCR Model for the Forecast of CDs Frequency Over BOB -- 4.1 Verification of the Deterministic Forecast -- 4.2 Verification of the Probability Forecast -- 5 Conclusions -- References -- Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction in the North Indian Ocean During 2013 Using OSCAT Derived Surface Wind Observations -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data Used and Methodology -- 2.1 Data Used -- 2.2 Methodology -- 3 Results and Discussion -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- The Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on the Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclogenesis During the Year 2013 -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Results -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- Relation of Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Over North Indian Ocean and North West Pacific Ocean with Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Over Nino 3.4 Region and Indian Ocean Dipole -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Discussion -- 3.1 Genesis and Intensification of TDs in NIO with Respect to El-Nino/La-Nina Conditions -- 3.2 Genesis and Intensification of TDs in NIO with Respect to IOD Conditions -- 3.3 Genesis and Intensification of TDs Over the NWPO in Respect of El-Nino/La Nina Conditions -- 3.4 Genesis and Intensification of TDs Over the NWPO in Respect of IOD Conditions -- 4 Conclusion -- References -- Governing Factors Associated with Intensification of TC-A Diagnostic Study of VSCS PHAILIN and LEHAR -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 2.1 Brief Life History of VSCS PHAILIN and LEHAR -- 3 Results and Discussion -- 3.1 SST and Intensification of PHAILIN and LEHAR -- 3.2 Analysis of VWS -- 3.3 AV and Intensity -- 3.4 Analysis of Convergence -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- Part IV: NWP Modelling for Tropical Cyclone Forecast
• 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Results and Discussions -- 3.1 Synoptic History of VSCS MADI -- 3.2 Environmental Influences on the Intensity of VSCS MADI - VWS and SST -- 3.3 EFC Changes vis-a-vis Intensity Change of VSCS MADI -- 3.4 Structural Variations of VSCS MADI - Rainfall Asymmetry Analysis -- 4 Conclusion -- References -- The Role of Information System in Data/Product/Warning Dissemination and Future Improvements -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Information System of IMD -- 3 Bulletin Issued During Cyclone Period -- 3.1 Tropical Weather Outlook -- 3.2 Special Tropical Weather Outlook -- 3.3 Tropical Cyclone Advisories -- 3.4 Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) -- 3.5 Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation -- 3.6 Bulletin for India Coast -- 3.7 Wind Forecast for Different Quadrants -- 3.8 TC Vital -- 3.9 Cone of Uncertainty Forecast -- 4 SMS -- 5 Access/Utilization of Information System During Cyclone Period -- 6 Conclusions and Future Scope -- References -- Management of Post-landfall Riverine Flooding -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Post-landfall Riverine Flooding -- 3 Present Status of Observational Network -- 4 Issues Identified to Address Post-landfall Riverine Flooding -- 4.1 Density of Observatory Network for Rainfall Prediction -- 4.2 Coordination of NMHSs with Other Agencies -- 4.3 State Planning for Management of Riverine Flooding -- 5 Conclusion -- References -- Part II: Climatological Aspects and Rapid Changes in Tropical Cyclones -- Tropical Cyclone Track, Structure and Intensity Changes at Landfall -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Current Strategy of Monitoring and Prediction of Track, Structure and Intensity -- 3 TC Track Changes During Landfal -- 3.1 Current Strategy for TC Tracking -- 3.2 Current Strategy of TC Track Forecasting -- 3.3 Operational Track Forecast Products to Maximise the Utility of Track Forecasts
• 3.3 Relative Vorticity in Relation to Rapid Weakening -- 3.4 Vertical Wind Shear in Relation to Rapid Weakening -- 3.5 Humidity in Relation to Rapid Weakening -- 3.6 Liquid Water Content in Relation to Rapid Weakening -- 4 Conclusion -- References -- Rapid Movement of Cyclone Viyaru Just Before Landfall-A Case Study -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Result and Discussions -- 3.1 Translational Speed of Cyclone Viyaru -- 3.2 Track Forecast Error of Cyclonic Storm Viyaru -- 3.2.1 Operational Track and Landfall Forecast Error -- 3.2.2 Track and Landfall Forecast Error of NWP Models -- 3.3 Rapid Track Changes Over North Indian Ocean -- 3.4 Dynamical Features Associated with Rapid Movement of Cyclone VIYARU -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- Some Characteristics of Translational Speed of Cyclonic Disturbances Over North Indian Ocean in Recent Years -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Result and Discussions -- 3.1 Mean Translational Speed of CDs During a Year -- 3.2 Mean Translational Speed of CDs of Different Intensities During a Year -- 3.3 Inter-seasonal Variation of Translational Speed of CDs Over the NIO -- 4 Conclusions -- Annexure I -- References -- Life Period of Cyclonic Disturbances Over the North Indian Ocean During Recent Years -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Results and Discussion -- 3.1 Average Life Period of the CDs -- 3.2 Duration of Different Intensity Stages During the Life Period of CDs -- 3.3 Cumulative Duration of Stages of CDs Over the NIO -- 4 Conclusions -- Annexure I -- References -- Part III: Cyclogenesis, Monitoring and Prediction -- Seasonal Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis Over Bay of Bengal During Post-monsoon Season -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data and Methodology -- 3 Results and Discussion -- 3.1 Variability of CDs Frequency
• Numerical Simulations with WRF to Study the Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on the Evolution of Tropical Cyclones Over Bay of Bengal
• 3.4 Difficult Situations in Track Forecasting for a Landfalling Cyclone -- 3.4.1 Average Track Forecast Errors over the NIO -- 3.4.2 Track Forecast over Data Sparse Region and for Recurving/Looping TCs -- 3.4.3 Rapid Changes in Tracks -- 4 Intensity Changes During Landfall -- 4.1 Current Strategy in TC Intensity Monitoring -- 4.2 Current Strategy for Intensity Forecasting -- 4.3 Difficult Situations -- 4.3.1 TC Intensity Prediction Error -- 4.3.2 Intensity Prediction of Intense TCs and over Data Sparse Region -- 4.3.3 Prediction of Rapid Intensification -- 4.3.4 Intensity Prediction After Landfall -- 4.3.5 Rapid Weakening of TC over the Sea Before Landfall -- 5 Structure Changes During Landfall -- 5.1 Current Strategy of Structure Monitoring and Forecasting -- 5.2 Difficult Situations -- 5.2.1 Error in Quadrant Wind Forecast due to Error in MSW Forecast -- 5.2.2 Shifting of Convection and Wind Maxima During Landfall -- 6 Conclusions -- 7 Future Scope -- References -- Very Severe Cyclonic Storm MADI over Bay of Bengal, 6-13 December 2013: A Diagnostic Study -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Brief Life History of VSCS Madi -- 3 Data and Methodology -- 4 Results and Discussions -- 4.1 Intensity Characteristics of VSCS, Mai -- 4.1.1 Climatological Aspect of Weakening of Systems in the Bay of Bengal -- 4.1.2 Low Level Relative Vorticity -- 4.1.3 Low Level Wind Shear -- 4.1.4 SST and Ocean Thermal Energy -- 4.1.5 Moist Static Stability -- 4.1.6 Middle Tropospheric Relative Humidity -- 4.2 Movement of the Storm -- 4.2.1 Track in Relation to Steering Wind -- 5 Conclusions -- References -- Rapid Weakening of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm `Lehar´ - A Case Study -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Brief Life History of Lehar -- 3 Results and Discussion -- 3.1 Performance of NWP Models for Rapid Weakening Prediction -- 3.2 SST and Ocean Thermal Energy (OTE) in Relation to Rapid Weakening